Seafood exports may accelerate in the last months of 2018 (31-08-2018)

Vietnam's seafood export market is highly concentrated. The United States, Japan, the European Union, Mainland China and South Korea were still the largest markets for Vietnamese seafood in the first seven months of 2018.
Seafood exports may accelerate in the last months of 2018

The volume makes a great contribution to the increase of seafood exports value.

Export turnover of aquatic products in the first 7 months of 2018 is estimated to be worth around US $ 4.7 billion, increased by 7.5% over the same period last year (about US $ 328 million higher). The reason of this growth is the raising of price and volume of export.

After declining in February 2018 due to cyclicality, seafood exports swiftly augmented in March 2018. The trends then stabilized over the months, but the upward trend was not as strong as in the first 7 months of last year.

In terms of commodity, in July 2018, the group of commodity with HS code 03 (fish, crustaceans, and mollusks) had better growth in price than HS 16 items (prepared foodstuffs of meat, fish or crustaceans, mollusks or other aquatic invertebrates). Generally, the price of seafood exports in the first 7 months of 2018 increased by 2.83% over the same period last year.

Vietnam's seafood export market is highly concentrated. The United States, Japan, the European Union, Mainland China and South Korea were still the largest markets for Vietnamese seafood in the first seven months of 2018. The rest of markets only accounted less than 30% of export value. EU was leading the consumer market with 17.16% of total exports, followed by the United States with 16.68%. Export prices to most major markets were increased in July 2018, except for Japan market. The price to Japan market fell about 3% compared to June 2018.

Favorable factors for speeding seafood export

According to the Directorate of Fisheries (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), tra fish raw material market in the Mekong Delta continued to decline in July 2018. The highest price ranged from VND 25,000 to 27,000 per kilogram for the best grade of tra fish, decreasing about VND 3,000 per kilogram compare to the last month price in the production areas of An Giang, Vinh Long, Dong Thap. The price of juvenile tra fish increased slightly compare with previous month due to the influence of weather condition. Price of juvenile fish at the size of 30 fishes per kilogram is currently from VND 25,000 to 30,000 per kilogram. As Chinese importers temporarily stop buying tra fish to consume all of their imported goods, many enterprises reduced their purchase of tra fish from farmers even it was good time to stock new juvenile as favorable weather condition. However, the price of tra fish from now until the end of the year is predicted to be profitable for farmers.

The raw shrimp market in the Mekong Delta tends to rise up prices for black tiger shrimp and white-leg shrimp after increasing slightly in June 2018. As demand in the US market plummeted due to high inventories; and China tightened its control over the shrimp trading through small trading business, the transaction volume was slowed down in July 2018. However, it is forecasted that by August or September, white-leg shrimp price will be increased by about 20% compared to the lowest prices in June.

In the world market, the growth momentum of aquaculture can be sustained until 2022 thanks to high demand for seafood. With a growth in the world population and a decrease in the production of fisheries, the demand will stay high. In addition, improved logistic system and advances in aquaculture, processing and preservation technologies, especially environmental protection in aquaculture, will promote the growth of aquaculture.

Another favorable factor for the aquaculture growth is the change of consumer trend. Consumers are more open to accept safe and high quality aquaculture products. This helps to reduce pressure on fishing industry, especially in the situation that partner countries are tightening regulations and control of origin of capture products.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, seafood exports in Quarter 3 of 2018 are forecasted to reach US $ 2.7 billion, increased by 13% over the same period. Tra fish export is expected to be boosted sharply in the third quarter and in the last months of the year, estimated to increase by 30%. Export value of seafood products such as tuna will rise by about 15% and by 10% for squid and octopus.

According to the seasonality, shrimp export is expected to be recovered in upcoming months thanks to seasonality as demand in the market rises during holiday season at the end of the year. The rise of shrimp raw material prices will motivate farmers to keep raising shrimp comfortably.

About brackish water shrimp, the output is expected to reach 720 thousand tons (increased by 13.1% compared to the projection in 2017), of which 290 thousand tons of black tiger shrimp (grow up 4.7%), 430 thousand tons of white-leg shrimp (0.7% increase).

The impact of trade tensions between the United States and China is also a concern of fisheries industry. The United States plans to impose a new tax of 10% on Chinese shrimp products with codes HS 03061700, 16052105, 16052110, 16052905, and 16052910. These products are also the strength of Vietnam in the United State market. If Vietnam is able to ensure the origin of products, this could be a good opportunity for Vietnam to increase exports to the United States.

Phuong Hoa

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